January 31, 2019
Fantasy football projections: Incorporating Elo ratings into projections
The football season is so short, an analytical fantasy football player would be forgiven for over-relying on historical averages for their future projections. But I built my weekly projection and ranking system to also account for three contextual factors of games in the venue, the weather, and the opponent’s defense, and those adjustments improved the accuracy of my predictions in 2018.
In an effort to build on that success, I compared my projections to realized statistics to look for contextual factors I might have missed, and one such factor was inescapable: The final score margin can tell you a lot about how a game was likely played....
In an effort to build on that success, I compared my projections to realized statistics to look for contextual factors I might have missed, and one such factor was inescapable: The final score margin can tell you a lot about how a game was likely played....